Don’t Expect Much, But the Pirates Might Meet Expectations


When it comes to evaluating individual players most baseball people will tell you that runs are not the stat you want to be looking at. The dependence on who is hitting around you in the batting order makes it a weak indicator of how good a guy actually is.

When it comes to evaluating a team most people that have seen Moneyball will tell you runs are huge. And they are. How many you can score and prevent is everything.

With that in mind, a stat called Pythagorean Winning Percentage, or Pythagorean Expectation, was developed to determine the number of wins a team would have based on the runs scored for and against them over the season. As you know, Pythagoras was an Ionian philosopher and mathematician so smart that he’s teaching us stuff about baseball despite having died a few thousand years before it was invented.

As it turns…

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